Archive for ‘Solar’

May 9, 2014

SUNE Support and Trend

Sun Edison dropped today and touched its and a 2010 point of resistance (now support) (16.61) and closed back up on its current trend line.  These two points of support will hold SUNE together for the time being.

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May 7, 2014

TAN and Hybrids

I chose to focus on the TAN because this ETF is weighted by the likes of First Solar, Sun Edison, and Solar City.

One of the drivers that I’ll be watching is how the major solar companies move from a incentive-based model to what I believe will be a solar-hybrid sector.   In 2016, the Residential Renewable Energy Tax Credit will end.   This means that solar companies will need to have adopted a less dependent sale model within the next year.  In every solar sales proposal today, you’ll find a big chunk of change deducted from the gross cost of the system, presenting a less intimidating net cost.   This net cost is often what will sway homeowners to go ahead and purchase.  The ability to use 30% of the cost of the system for taxes is a big draw.

This change in model means adopting other less “lease-reliant” products.   In recent news, “SolarCity Teams With Carrier to Offer Affordable, Solar-Powered Air Conditioning” gave highlight to some of the changes that I’m talking about.   This is the example of creating the solar hybrid.   What’s interesting about this is I recall when SCTY took their focus off their Energy Efficiency (EE) division.  (I knew a salesperson that was responsible for selling EE for SCTY when they seemed to shut it down).   For SCTY to return to the efficiency realm is curious.   So, some questions/thoughts to consider:

  • Can solar-powered air-conditioning units create a niche for SCTY? or open up the market for Air-conditioning companies such as WATSCO to compete? (WSO has been added to my watchlist, long-term 1 year)
  • SCTY will need to have a new (or improved) leasing strategy in place once the tax credit expires.   Leasing companies will no longer be able to benefit from the tax credit that should be going to the homeowner anyways. (mid-to-long-term 6mos-1year)
  •  I’m expecting TAN to “right-size” before any new stars go Apple on us.

Yesterday I reviewed TAN and assessed a long-term trend, predicting a bearish move to 39.50 (even called SCTY to go with it):

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Looking at a long-term trend, you can see that it’s still possible for TAN to drop to 34.12.   Keep an eye on that ichimoku cloud.  A crossover will signal the go ahead for the push to that number.   Again, this is a long-term monitor while the US solar industry moves away from incentives.

 

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April 9, 2011

SOLR’s Wedge

SOLR’s wedge recently experienced normal selling pressure considering the trend.  Although the stock ended up with a bullish hammer, you will still need a confirmation before trading this candlestick as a reversal.  The RSI is below 50, which normally indicates a downtrend while the MACD has moved below the 9.  The solars have been taking it’s share of “shading” across the board, so we’ll need to see this group recover before expecting the uptrend.

On the other side of the mono-poly playing field is the GT Solar, known for it’s polysilicon processes.  As previously discussed with MEMC, there are advantages to using either mono or polysilicone cells, but I believe that only one will end up outperforming the other.  It’s just up to technology.   As with most American companies, part of the success will rely on the SOLR’s production ability in China.
I prefer SOLR over WFR because of the volume the company trades at.  Moving averages have WFR in a better position, but I prefer to exclude spikes, which puts SOLR at better volume.

April 8, 2011

WFR’s Gaps

We’ve already identified the two gaps that we’ll need to be concerned with for WFR in previous posts.   The second tiny gap has already been filled and I will note that the first gap from February needs to be tended to.  Caution on the need to fill this gap.  Until then, pray for support.  Target 11.90.

April 3, 2011

STP’s Reverse

As mentioned previously, STP’s H&S was showing plenty of signs for a dive and I called for a reversal.  Friday’s market confirmed it.  While many of the industry’s stock fell, STP took one of the bigger hits.  Difficult to read the next move, so we’ll need to see how the industry recovers and then take it from there.

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April 1, 2011

Let There Be Light…with Veeco

I’ll be adding Veeco Instruments to my watchlist.  VECO is in a very strong wedge and is about to test the last PSAR.  A break past that will bring a nice, continued updward trend!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Veeco Instruments specializes in Solar and LEDs. Veeco’s solar approach is more centered around manufacturing efficiency for concentrated and thin-film applications.  With LEDs, Veeco’s claim to fame is their MOCVD (metal organic chemical vapor deposition) systems.  A focus on manufacturing efficiency aids in the reduction of cost.

Better cost, more usage.

April 1, 2011

STP’s Doji at the Top

I’m calling a pause on STP’s head and shoulders.  Today’s test of what I felt is the point of resistance was weak, ending up with a doji at the top of a trend.  Therefore I’ll call it.  Reverse.  (But can I say I hope for a break in the neck line? 🙂

 

April 1, 2011

WFR’s Doji

WFR tested past the resistance noted previously. The stock ended up with an engulfed doji, which normally is an indication of reversal in an uptrend, but do we even consider the past few marks an uptrend. I’m considering this doji just a break before the move.  I like to trade the MA crosses and in this case, the 10 is above the 13 which, in WFR’s case, is usually a call to move up.
I suspect we’ll see an move up because of the two, but as the first WFR analysis called for, I will be waiting for the PSAR confirmation before I enter. If you notice, the PSAR was never cleared for the next uptrend.

March 31, 2011

STP – Inverse Head n Shoulder

Take a look at STP Suntech Power Holdings Inc’s chart.  The first thing you’ll notice is the inverse head and shoulders which is setting up nicely and almost completing the last shoulder.  Another favorite of my is the Three White Soldiers.  After a nice decline, this set up leans toward a good trend.  But as noted on the chart, let’s wait for the break past the 9.90 area.

March 31, 2011

MEMC’s Spinning White Top – 13.10

As previously mentioned, WFR is trading at the 13.10 resistance.  A spinning white top confirms the need to hold before taking any action.   Keep an eye on the 50-day at is makes its way across the other MAs.  However, note the 10-day’s move below the 13-day despite bull action.   This brings up the reminder that there is a February gap to fill.